Europe Doesn't Want Peace Now
There is denial and the anger in Europe, but the EU wants the war to continue for now, for deeper, more cynical reasons.
Recently, after a first stunned silence from the Europeans when the first talks in three years took place between the US and Russia, there has been an ugly reaction from the Old Continent. Instead of bowing to the inevitable - a looming defeat of Ukraine by Russia -, and instead of praising a new US administration that wants peace, European politicians are giving all the signs of wanting to double down and go it (almost) alone, even though militarily that is a delusional pipe dream.
It seemed at first that the Europeans had accepted their upcoming defeat in Ukraine, when they did not react much to the first contacts between the US and Russia. Ian Proud, the ex-British diplomat, wrote on his substack about the Europeans being in the final stages of grief; namely, depression and acceptance. But there are dangerous signs now that after years of a war, which has clearly been going Russia’s way since at least September 2023 if not earlier, the Europeans are still in fact in the first stages of this grief process, namely, denial and anger about what is about to happen in Ukraine.
This is certainly true for the majority of European politicians and “journalists”, namely those who are not the real insiders at the heart EU decision-making. They lack diplomatic and military expertise today, in particular about Russia, which makes them still often believe that Russia is weak and on her last legs. But for the inner EU circle of real decision-makers who pull the strings, to which belong the public figures of Ursula von der Leyen and Emmanuel Macron, there is far more than just primitive anti-Russian warmongering going on. There is no other way to explain how on the third anniversary of the start of the conflict, so many EU politicians and civil servants descended on Kiev on the 24th of Feb 2025.
Telltale Signs That the Official Narrative is Off
That something was not right in the official European narrative became evident in the Munich Security Conference of February 2025, when Poland’s neocon Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorsky oddly stated that the war is for the “long term, less than 10y if we are lucky”. He characterized the Ukraine conflict, wrongly, as a “classical colonial war”, adding that “they usually take a decade. Look at Vietnam, look at Algeria, look at Angola, Afghanistan. Shorter than that is a bonus.” When asked about Europe’s plan for Ukraine, he answered: “Russian economy is starting to suffer... So our plan is to continue to stay the course, to continue supporting Ukraine.”
Macron made strangely similar comments in 2023 about the war taking a long time, as well as Mark Rutte, the SecGen for NATO, as if there was nothing they or the West could or even wanted to do to end this war early. Macron also had a live streaming event addressing French youth, during which he said that there could be no appeasement with Russia, which he presented as an existential threat to France and Europe. The reasons he gave were not all related with the war in Ukraine; he accused Russia (without evidence, of course) of “helping Iran build a nuclear bomb” and of hurting France’s “interests in Africa”. Even if true, are these reasons for the war in Ukraine to continue?
Politicians that are less smooth in their media appearances, like German Foreign Minister Anna-Lena Baerbock, EU Foreign Rep. Kaja Kallas, or Danish PM Mette Frederiksen make it obvious that something else is going on than just a concern for Ukraine. For instance, Frederiksen made to president Zelensky in Kiev the following absolutely Orwellian statement: "I have to be honest and say that I don't believe Putin. I don't think he wants peace in Ukraine. I understand that many people think that a peaceful solution or a ceasefire sounds like a good idea, but we risk that peace in Ukraine is actually more dangerous than the war that is happening now".
There are other examples of odd comments from other European leaders, which do not rhyme at all with the current situation on the ground nor with the current US position. What all this shows is that there is likely a non-expressed desire from the Europe political and financial elite for the war in Ukraine to continue, at least for some time. Thus, Russia continues to be demonized and presented as a threat, justifying for Europe to try to make it more difficult for the US and Russia to reach an agreement.
This is also why the European political and financial elite (that was aligned with the Biden Administration) is trying the best it can to keep the United States involved in the conflict in Ukraine; so as to prevent a peace agreement with Russia from crystalizing. If a ceasefire cannot be avoided, it is important for the European political elite to make sure then that the US commits to being a “backstop” for a French and British “reassurance force” that would provide “security guarantees” in the case that “Russia violates the ceasefire”. If needed, it would be easy to have a ceasefire broken by the Russians...
Europe Wants the War to Continue for Now
Thus, for the EU the war in Ukraine must not end now, not because “Ukraine needs to be put in the best position for negotiating with Russia” or any other such lame excuses. It must continue because it will give political cover to the huge financial packages and the new financial rules that the EU political and financial elite want to implement.
President Macron is someone who should be watched very carefully in this regard, even though he is difficult to read, because he is double-faced. Paris has a direct stake in the financial outcome that is driving the European stance with regard to the US and Ukraine. It is no surprise that two meetings of EU leaders took place in Paris before Macron took off for the US to meet Trump.
To understand the current European political behavior, it is necessary to understand how the most callous and cynical part of Europe’s political elite plans to use the Ukraine war for political control and financial benefit. Indeed, Europe’s new defense financing strategy has been debated mostly off camera for months, but the new US position with respect to Ukraine is forcing the Europeans to come to an agreement about the financing part faster than anticipated. As always, “follow the money”.
To be continued…
Finn, you cut right through the propaganda — Ukraine is no longer about defending freedom but a convenient pretext for the EU elite to tighten their grip on power and push through economic and political agendas that would never fly in peacetime.
A very well-researched and well-argued post. At the end of the day, all one needs to do is to follow the money trail. This war is a gravy train for the Europeans and the fact that the Danish PM can make a statement to the effect that peace is more dangerous than a continuation of war is cynical in the extreme. While European elites are enriching themselves through this war, it is even more significant for the US military-industrial complex and how they are sucking every dollar of profit from every Ukrainian life. Here is an article I wrote about it in October 2024, my very first Substack article:
https://open.substack.com/pub/chandragupta/p/fueling-the-flames-of-war-in-ukraine?r=2rza6e&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=false